Minggu, 09 Desember 2012

What is the minimum number of days required to see 80% of pregnancies completed?

Q. Data analysis. Additional info for Question>>>>The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth is a mean 266 days standard deviation of 16 days. Multiple choices answers provided are: a-266, b-276, c-280, d-282, e-292.

A. Dear Adam,

The Normal distribution should work for modeling the length of human pregnancies. Since this distribution is symmetric about the mean, you should see 50% of pregnancies completed in 266 days (which also means that choice (a) is obviously not correct). To determine which of the remaining choices is best, you have to know a bit more about the Normal distribution, and having statistical tables or a calculator is helpful.

Recall that about 68% of outcomes will fall within one standard deviation of the mean when using the Normal distribution (i.e., between one standard deviation below the mean to one standard deviation above the mean). This implies that at the mean plus one standard deviation (266+16=282 days), we would expect to see about 84% of pregnancies completed. With this information we can definitely eliminate choice (e). We also know that choice (d) is doubtful (we know it isn't precisely correct, but would like to determine if there is another choice that is closer to the 80% figure of interest).

A quick linear interpolation here between 266 and 282 days, using 50% and 84% respectively, yields approximate values of 71.25% in 276 days and 79.75% in 280 days. Thus choice (c) appears to be closest to correct, even by using this rudimentary approximation. If you went to the effort of obtaining more precise values, you would find that 80% of pregnancies would be completed in 279.47 days, and that 80.92% of pregnancies would be completed in 280 days.

Bottom line:
The best choice is (c) 280 days.


Why do online pregnancy calculators calculate you furthur than you really are?
Q. I know the exact date of conception, and I used an online pregnancy calculator to see what my due date was. Well, it calculated a whole week more than what I am. It said I was 8 weeks 4 days when in all reality, I am ALMOST 7 weeks. Why is that? Is there a reason it does it that way?

A. B/c they date your pregnancy from the 1st day of your missed period just like the doctors do. So even though u may know the exact day you conceived they will always go by your last period start date.


If the second line on my pregnancy test is very light, am I only like a week pregnant?
Q. I am trying to figure out my conception date, or how far along I am. I have taken 3 tests and all of them have a VERY faint second line. That means I can't be very far along right? I did the online conception calculators and they put me at July 11th. I'm just trying to be sure because I was with someone different at the end of June. I am going to the doc on Thursday, but would like some opinions in the meantime!

A. well I don't want to bring bad news.but the color of the line on the test is no indication as to how far along you are. When was the first day of your last period? You calculate your conception date and due date by that


How early in a pregnancy can you feel symptoms?
Q. If the calculators are correct i would be in my 4th week and i feel some symptoms of either being prego or getting my period. but seeing how im 4 days late which is very unusual i think imight be prego. symptoms include nipple tenderness, milky discharge and fatiigue (extreme fatigue). BUt its still too early to take a test right? could i really be feeling symptoms this early?

A. the first symptom I had with mine were sensitive nipples and tender breasts only 1 week after conception with ALL 3!...then came the tiredness

I went on to miss my period, I took a hpt and all 3 times it was positive with days of being late on my period.

its definately not too early to take a test. you can usually take one around the time your period was due with a very accurate result. i would go ahead and take one but wait till tomorrow morning and do it with your first wee in the moring as its then most highly concentrated with the HCG hormone the test is trying to detect

good luck





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